Technolo-ch'i

Economists, Financial Analysts, Statisticians, Demographers, Climatologists, Astrologers and of course Business consultants do this all the time...Assume (make an ASS out of U and ME) and then predict the future. The whole world eagerly wait to eat up what they are about to vomit; ultimately sending economies to recession, share prices berserk, dumb public to panic, create new trends, countries to war and people generally direction less.
Another observation is surprisingly we do not challenge these predictors when their advices, which are almost always wrong, don't work. Obelix comments 'People are crazy'.
 

I have a few armchair (ass-at-rest) predictions too ... without any assumptions. They are so obvious that I am sure that I am safe :-)

• In a few decades, we will have dumb terminals hooked to the one big server: 'The Web'. No more operating Systems, no more pirated MS-Office, no more installation CDs & drivers and no more Hard disks. So we will see the end of the 'Personal' Computer.
• Many customers will realize that the entities: computers, automation, software, hardware and consultants had taken them for a ride. The implementation wizard was a lie, Business never improved, processes never got streamlined, the softwares were not easy to use, it was neither adaptive nor flexible and Total Cost of Ownership was always high. They will feel cheated and will seriously challenge the sales of the then software houses.
• The Age of custom developments and in-house software will return.
• Technology changed so fast but not its acceptance! Customers (sometimes excluding the IT manager) still don't understand whats ERP, Business Intelligence, work flow and pervasive technology. These concepts were too futuristic for today but they will sell tomorrow.
• Like the electronics industry the world will then have just a few big software giants. The minnows will either be swallowed by the giants or will perish.
• Entrepreneurs and software houses will then stop developing out-of-the-world and way-over-the-head applications but instead will pursue the development of very basic databases, integrative applications and infrastructures for the web.

Anyone dare challenge these? ;-)